Updated Monday morning forecast & Weather Notes — August 22nd, 2016

· Transition day today to drying out weather – most noticeable this afternoon with touch of a Fall-like air mass.

· Summer weather returns fairly quickly as temperatures moderate upward into the 70s tomorrow and then 80s Wednesday into Thursday. Humidity will make a slower comeback – so some pretty nice weather ahead for residents and visitors alike.

· Next shot of precipitation arrives later Thursday afternoon near the Quebec border and Widely scattered showers/storms Friday.

· This Weekend – looking pretty good with a dry day Saturday a few more clouds possible Sunday could lead to some scattered showers, but right now looks dry.

· Couple of tropical waves we’re watching – Invest 99L could end up near the eastern Bahamas mid to late week, and Fiona tropical depression may flirt with Bermuda later as well.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy northern areas with slight chance for a mountain sprinkle. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny Barre-Montpelier area south. Blustery and cool. A high in the mid 60s to near 70. West to northwest breeze 10 to occasionally 25 mph. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low in the upper 40s to around 50. Light west winds. (5)

TUESDAY: A beauty. Mostly sunny.Near seasonal normal’s with a high in the mid 70s. Southwest breeze 10 to 15 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy dense valley fog. Chilly lows 50 to 55. (4)

WEDNESDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny but with a few afternoon clouds northern areas. Warmer with a high 80 to 85. (3)

THURSDAY: Filtered sunshine through high clouds in the morning, mixed sun and clouds in the afternoon. Slight chance for a shower northern areas late. Warmer and more humid especially in the afternoon. A low in the low 60s. A high in the mid 80s.(2)

FRIDAY: Mixed clouds and sun. Widely scattered showers, maybe a thunderstorm. A low in the mid 60s. A high in the low 80s. (2)

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A low 55 to 60. A high in the mid 70s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mixed clouds and sun. A low around 60. A high in the in the upper 70s. (2)

Average lows mid 50s. Normal high mid 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-22 [end]

Updated Friday Evening forecast — August 19th, 2016

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low around 55. Light southeast winds. (5)

TOMORROW: A beauty with lots of sunshine. A little warmer just a bit more humid. A high in the mid 80s. Southeast breeze around 10 mph. (5)

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and more muggy. Patchy valley fog. A low near 65. Southeast breeze 10 to 15 mph across the hills. (5)

SUNDAY: Fog burns off to partly sunny skies. Increasing afternoon clouds, warm humid with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late. Breezy with a high 80 to 85. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and a few thunderstorms likely, some with locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise lots of clouds. A low around 60. (3)

MONDAY: Clouds with a chance for a few lingering showers gradual giving to partial afternoon clearing but cool. A high in the mid to upper 60s. (3)

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and gorgeous after morning fog. Cool. A low in the mid 40s to low 50s. A high in the low 70s. (2)

WEDNESDAY: A few clouds northern areas, otherwsie3 lots of sunshine and beautiful. A low in the mid 50s. A high 75 to 80. (2)

THURSDAY: Filtered sunshine through high clouds. A low in the low 60s. A high in the mid 80s.(2)

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-19 [end]

Updated Friday Morning forecast & WX Notes — August 19th, 2016

· An excellent stretch of weather through most of the weekend. Temperatures will gain a few degrees each day with high eventually reaching into the mid and upper 80s in some of the warmer spots.

· Check on mid to late August surface water temps for Lake Champlain were looking very comfortable for boating and recreation.

· Water levels were much higher after recent rainfall so please be double careful if swimming in our local rivers and streams and don’t even go to those dangerous spots unless you want to be bad statistic.

· USGS GAGE AT ROUSES POINT NY 94.46 FEET
USGS GAGE AT BURLINGTON VT 94.52 FEET 75 DEGREES
KING STREET FERRY DOCK 94.46 FEET 74 DEGREES
COLCHESTER REEF 74 DEGREES
DIAMOND ISLAND 72 DEGREES

· Showers and Thunderstorms will mess up Sunday evening and Sunday will be much more humid that Saturday.

· Another enjoyable incredible stretch of weather develops Monday afternoon after fairly decent rainfall associated with a cold front Sunday night.

· A cooler Fall like air mass will filter in on gusty northwest winds keeping highs in the 60s to low 70s Monday. But nice warming trend with excellent weather develops Monday afternoon well into Thursday next week for dry series of spectacular days!

TODAY: Pick of the week. Bright sunshine and blue skies after morning fog. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low 55 to 60. Light winds. (5)

SATURDAY: A beauty with lots of sunshine. A little warmer. A high in the mid 80s. South breeze 10 to 15 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. A low near 65. (4)

SUNDAY: Fog burns off to partly sunny skies. Increasing afternoon clouds, warm sticky with a showers and thunderstorms arriving late. A high 80 to 85. (3)

MONDAY: Morning clouds with a chance for leftover showers, then partly sunny and less humid & cool. A low around 60. A high in the mid to upper 60s. (2)

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and gorgeous after morning fog. Cool. A low in the mid 40s to low 50s. A high in the low 70s. (2)

WEDNESDAY: Brilliant sunshine. A low in the mid 50s. A high 75 to 80. (2)

THURSDAY: Filtered sunshine through high clouds. A low in the low 60s. A high in the mid 80s.

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-19 [end]

Updated Thursday Evening Forecast — August 18th, 2016

TONIGHT: A few evening clouds, then clearing. Considerable valley fog overnight. A low in the upper 50s to around 60. Light northwest winds. (5)

TOMORROW: Pick of the week. Bright sunshine and blue skies after low clouds and fog disperse. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (5)

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low 55 to 60. Light winds. (5)

SATURDAY: A beauty with lots of sunshine. A little warmer. A high in the mid 80s. South breeze 10 to 15 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. A low 65 to 70. (4)

SUNDAY: Fog burns off to Intervals of sun. Late day clouds, warm sticky with a rising chance for showers and thunderstorms toward dark. A high 80 to 85. (3)

MONDAY: Morning clouds with a chance for leftover showers, then partly sunny and less humid & cool. A low around 60. A high in the mid 60s to around 70. (2)

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and gorgeous after morning fog. Cool. A low in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A high in the low 70s. (2)

WEDNESDAY: Brilliant sunshine. A low in the mid 50s. A high 75 to 80. (2)

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-17 [end]

Updated Thursday Morning forecast & Weather Notes — August 18th, 2016

· Weak trough of lower pressure was passing through triggering a few sprinkles or passing brief showers. Timing takes these clouds and showers out of the region in time for partial afternoon sunshine.

· An isolated brief thundershower cannot be ruled 100% out, but the best chance for this would be later this afternoon across central and southern Vermont.

· About two and half days look to be dry – “the pick of the week” for tomorrow Friday, and a gorgeous Saturday.

· Unfortunately Sunday afternoon and especially evening has been clipped with possible showers/thunderstorms with a slightly faster arrival. This frontal action might be overdone by some of the models so it’s not in stone that we’ll see this come in to mess up the last part of Sunday but this is the trend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with scattered sprinkles or light showers passing through this morning. Partial afternoon sunshine with a leftover slight chance for a brief afternoon thundershower, mainly southern areas. A high around 80. Light northwest winds. (5)

TONIGHT: A few evening clouds then clearing. Considerable valley fog with a low in the upper 50s to around 60. Light winds. (4)

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Bright sunshine and blue skies after low clouds and fog disperse. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (4)

Looking further ahead…

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low in the upper 50s. (4)

SATURDAY: A beauty with lots of sunshine. A little warmer. A high in the mid to upper 80s. (3)

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun giving way to more clouds in the afternoon. Warm and sticky. A rising chance for showers and thunderstorms toward evening. A low 65 to 70. A high around 80. (3)

MONDAY: Morning clouds with a chance for leftover showers early, then partly sunny and less humid. A low in the mid 60s. A high in the upper 60s. (2)

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny after morning fog. A low in the mid 50s. Cool. A high 70 to 75. (2)

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-17 [end]

Updated Wednesday Evening forecast — August 17, 2016

TONIGHT: Becoming mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low around 60. Light south winds. (5)

TOMORROW: Intervals of morning sun, then more clouds in the afternoon. A few isolated mountain sprinkles with a slight chance for a late day thundershower. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (5)

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A low near 60. Light winds. (4)

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny after low clouds and fog. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (4)

Looking further ahead…

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low in the upper 50s. (4)

SATURDAY: A beauty with lots of sunshine. A little warmer. A high in the mid to upper 80s. (3)

SUNDAY: Mixed clouds and sunshine. Warm and sticky. A low 65 to 70. A high in the mid 80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms arriving Sunday Night. (3)

MONDAY: Morning clouds with a chance for leftover showers early, then partly sunny and less humid. A low in the mid 60s. A high in the low 70s. (2)

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny after morning fog. A low in the mid 50s. Cool. A high 70 to 75. (2)

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-17 [end]

Updated Wednesday Morning Forecast & Weather Notes — August 17th, 2016

· Transition Day! we should get into partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s and drying northwesterly breeze 10 to 15 mph – what’s not to like?

· Minor chances for a couple boomer Thursday afternoon, then 3 days of dry weather going into this weekend. This forecast based off the Euro model which holds back precipitation incoming from another frontal passage along about Sunday night.

· Warm and humid weather returns as warmth builds up into the mid and upper 80s, possibly a couple 90 degrees reading by Sunday afternoon if we see partial sunshine.

TODAY: Scattered morning sprinkles areas of drizzle giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. A high in the mid 70s. Northwest breeze 10 to 15 mph. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low around 60. Light southwest winds. (4)

THURSDAY: Partly sunny in the morning then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (4)

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A low near 60.

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny after low clouds and fog. A high in the low 80s. (2)

SATURDAY: Considerable amounts of sunshine with a few high clouds. A little warmer. A low in the upper 50s. A high in the mid to upper 80s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mixed clouds and sunshine. Warm and sticky. A low 65 to 70. A high in the upper 80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms arriving Sunday Night. (2)

MONDAY: Morning clouds with a chance for leftover showers early, then partly sunny and less humid. A low in the mid 60s. A high in the mid 70s.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny after morning fog. A low in the mid 50s. A high in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-16 [end]

Updated Tuesday Evening forecast — August 16th, 2016

TONIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain far northern areas. Occasional showers… moderate to heavy at times with a risk for thunder. Rather muggy and damp with a low in the mid 60s. Southeast breeze shifting to westerly overnight at 10 to 15 mph. (5)

TOMORROW: Scattered morning sprinkles giving way to partial afternoon sunshine. A high in the mid 70s. Northwest breeze 10 to 20 mph. (5)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low around 60. Little wind. (4)

THURSDAY: Partly sunny in the morning then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A high in the low 80s. Light northwest winds. (4)

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A low near 60.

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny after low clouds and fog. A high in the low 80s. (2)

SATURDAY: Considerable amounts of sunshine with a few high clouds. A little warmer. A low in the upper 50s. A high in the mid 80s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mixed clouds and sunshine. Warm and sticky. A low 65 to 70. A high in the mid 80s. (2)

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-16 [end]

Updated Tuesday morning Forecast & Weather Notes — August 16, 2016

· A dry day to start for most of us and will end rather wet with copious showers and even periods of rain nearest the Canadian border.

· This weather system is tracking a little further north and putting us into the warm sector where rain showers will be moderate to heavy, and include some thunderstorms especially southern western Vermont later today and this evening.

· Strong to severe thunderstorms were on target for primarily central and eastern New York today.

· Clouds will lower and thicken and showers across southern Vermont will spread northeastward through the afternoon. Thus if you want to avoid any rain do things this morning as opposed to the afternoon.

· The bulk of this precipitation will track through this evening and leave a few light showers, sprinkles across the northern high terrain to start the day Wednesday.

· Cold front pushes toward out region on Thursday afternoon and evening and falls apart. High pressure brings fair & dry weather Friday into Saturday and overnight modeling makes this now last into Sunday for what looks to be a choice weekend of dry fair but warm to hot weather.

· Dew points creep up again Sunday as it will be increasingly sticky Sunday.

TODAY: Filtered morning sun early, then thickening clouds with occasional showers this afternoon. Chance for a late day thunderstorm toward Rutland. A high in the mid 70s. Light southeast winds. (5)

TONIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain far northern areas. Occasional showers… moderate to heavy with a risk for thunder. Rather muggy and damp with a low in the mid 60s. Southeast breeze shifting to southwesterly 10 to occasionally 20 mph overnight. (4)

WEDNESDAY: Scattered morning sprinkles giving way to partial afternoon sunshine. A high in the mid to upper 70s. Winds becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low in the low 60s. (3)

THURSDAY: Morning sun then increasing clouds. Isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A high in the low 80s. (3)

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny after morning fog. A low near 60. A high 80 to 85. (2)

SATURDAY: Considerable amounts of sunshine with a few high clouds. A low in the mid 50s. A high in the mid 80s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. warm and sticky. A low in the 60s. A high in the 80s.

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-16 [end]

Updated Monday Evening forecast — August 15th, 2016

TONIGHT: Scattered clouds. Isolated valley fog. A low in the upper 50s to around 60. Little wind. (5)

TOMORROW: Filtered morning sun then thickening clouds in the afternoon. A rising chance for showers later in the afternoon. A high in the mid 70s. Light southeast winds. (5)

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers…moderate to heavy at times northern areas..maybe a thunderstorm. Rather muggy and damp. A low in the mid 60s. Southeast breeze shifting to southwesterly 10 to occasionally 20 mph overnight. (4)

WEDNESDAY: Maybe a few morning sprinkles then partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. A high in the mid to upper 70s. Winds becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph. (3)

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A low in the 55 to 60. (3)

THURSDAY: Morning sun then increasing clouds. Widely scattered late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A high in the low 80s. (2)

FRIDAY: Pick of the week. Mostly sunny after morning fog. A low near 60. A high in the low 80s. (2)

SATURDAY: Considerable amounts of sunshine with a few high clouds. A low in the mid 50s. A high in the mid 80s.

Average lows mid to upper 50s. Normal high mid to upper 70s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/8-15 [end]