· Showers and thunderstorms arrive today with increasingly humid and hot conditions for this afternoon.

· A wave of weakening showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Saint Lawrence valley should mostly die out but push clouds with a threatening look across the region but this will be a false flag or sorts.

· The main event will develop across New York and adjacent Canada and track into Vermont later on this afternoon. These storms will be strong to potentially severe though less in number than our last go around Saturday.

· The most concentration appears to be northern tier and western Vermont locations, with possibly a cluster of storms near Bennington County.

TODAY: Periods of sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. Hot and increasingly muggy. Showers and a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms mid afternoon on…especially northern areas toward the Champlain valley. Some storms will produce gusty winds, hail and locally heavy downpours. A high upper 80s to low 90s. South to southwest winds 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms winding down this evening, a few could be strong before exiting, otherwise partly cloudy with patchy valley fog. Sticky. A low 65 to 70. Southwest winds 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mixed clouds and sunshine. Isolated mountain sprinkles and breezy. A high 80 to 85. West to northwest breezy 10 to 20 mph.

Looking further ahead…

TUESDAY NIGHT: Scattered clouds cooler not so humid. Patchy valley fog. A low mid to upper 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and warm to hot lower to moderate humidity levels. A high 85 to 90.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and sultry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially northern areas. A low in the mid 60s. A high in the low 80s.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Not as humid. A low 60 to 65. A high in the low 80s.

Average lows 55 to near 60. Normal high upper 70s to low 80s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence) RH/7-22

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