Updated Tuesday Morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 11th, 2016

· Spectacular stretch of weather into most of Thursday with temperatures above normal and dry weather for leaf-peeping.

· Benign weather in general with our next frontal system and cold front that will provide much needed rainfall to our region Thursday afternoon and evening.

· Colder air will funnel in behind the cold front for Friday with lowering temperatures held into the low 50s for highs in the Friday.

· Looking a pretty decent weekend – dry and though Saturday starts chilly…temperatures once again moderate nicely into the 60s again for Sunday.

· No snow indicated in our region for some time to come – climatologically, this is a typical time of year to see our first snows of the year – generally on grassy surfaces but occasionally closing high elevation passes like Smugglers Notch.

· Snow has advanced across parts of western and far northern Canada and in Asia across Siberia as winter was kicking in across the polar north.

TODAY: Brilliant autumn sunshine after a frosty morning giving way to increasing high clouds late in the day. A high in the mid 60s. Light south winds. (5)

TONIGHT: High cloudiness, otherwise mostly clear. Isolated valley fog. A low 40 to 45. Light south winds. (5)

WEDNESDAY: Pick of the week. Isolated fog burns off to lots of sunshine. Milder in the afternoon with a high in the middle 60s. South breeze 10 to 15 mph. (5)

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear in the evening, then increasing high clouds. A low in the mid 40s. (4)

THURSDAY: Partial morning sunshine then thickening clouds leading to a good chance for rain showers by late in the day. Breezy. A high around 65. (3)

FRIDAY: Morning clouds then mostly sunny blustery and chilly. A low around 40. A high in the low 50s.(2)

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny after morning frost. A low in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A high in the mid 50s. (2)

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine then thickening clouds later on . A low near 35. A high near 65. (2)

Average lows in the mid to upper 30s. Normal highs in the mid to upper 50s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-11 [end]

Updated Friday Evening Forecast — October 10th, 2016

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight…

TONIGHT: Clear and cold with widespread frost and freezing conditions.A low ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Little wind. (5)

TOMORROW: Brilliant autumn sunshine after a frosty morning giving way to increasing high clouds later on. A high 60 to 65. Light south winds. (5)

TUESDAY NIGHT: High cloudiness, otherwise mostly clear. Isolated valley fog. A low upper 30s to mid 40s. Light south winds. (5)

WEDNESDAY: Pick of the week. Isolated fog burns off to lots of sunshine. Milder in the afternoon with a high in the middle 60s. South breeze 10 to 15 mph. (4)

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear with patchy valley fog. A low in the mid 40s. (3)

THURSDAY: Partly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon leading to a good chance for late afternoon rain showers. A high 60 to 65. (2)

FRIDAY: Morning clouds then mostly sunny blustery and chilly. A low in the low 40s. A high in the low 50s.(2)

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny after morning frost. A low in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A high in the mid 50s. (2)

Average lows in the mid to upper 30s. Normal highs in the mid to upper 50s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-10 [end]

Update Monday morning forecast & WX notes — October 10th, 2016

· Peak Fall Foliage was occurring across much of northern and central Vermont currently – leaf peepers will have only a few more days to around a week across higher northern areas where it will be past peak soonest…

· Brilliant Fall foliage viewing today with a few morning clouds, and bright sunshine otherwise but dress accordingly as it will be rather chilly today once again in the 50 to 55 range for high temps.

· Next chances for need rainfall not until Thursday – but not expecting very much.

· Temperatures will be very comfortable again staring tomorrow Tuesday with the 60s and then the pick of week Wednesday.

· Very dry conditions continue to put us a mild to moderate drought. Rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days looks to be very limited.

TODAY: Morning clouds especially near the mountains, giving way to bright sunshine and blue skies. Chilly and blustery. A high in the low 50s. Northwest breeze 10 to 20 mph. (5)

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight…

TONIGHT: Clear and cold with widespread frost and freezing conditions.A low ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Little wind. (5)

TUESDAY: Brilliant autumn sunshine after a frosty morning giving way to increasing high clouds later on. A high reaching into the low to mid 60s. Light south winds. (5)

Looking further ahead…

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Isolated valley fog. A low mid 30s to around 40. (4)

WEDNESDAY: Pick of the week. Isolated fog burns off to lots of sunshine. Milder in the afternoon with a high in the middle 60s. (3)

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds. A rising chance for rain showers late morning into the afternoon. A low in the mid 40s. A high in the low 60s. (2)

FRIDAY: Morning clouds then increasing sunshine. A low 40 to 45. A high in the low to mid 50s.(2)

Average lows in the mid to upper 30s. Normal highs in the mid to upper 50s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-10 [end]

Updated Friday night Forecast — October 7th, 2016

TONIGHT: Mostly clear this evening, giving way to increasing clouds overnight. Maybe a sprinkle before daybreak with a low in the low 50s. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

TOMORROW: Considerable cloudiness. Occasional light showers later in the afternoon. A high in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to occasional 20 mph. (5)

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance for showers in the evening, then partly cloudy. A low 45 to 50. West breeze 10 mph. (5)

SUNDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. A couple mountain sprinkles possible. Seasonably chilly. A high near 55. Northwest breeze 10 to 15 mph. (5)

Looking further ahead…

SUNDAY NIGHT: Scattered clouds with considerable valley fog, along with patches of frost. A low in the mid 30s. (4)

MONDAY: Considerable morning fog, then mostly sunny. A high in the mid 50s. (3)

TUESDAY: Morning fog burns off to brilliant Autumn sunshine. A low 35 to 40 with patchy frost possible. A slight warming trend begins. A high close to 60. (2)

WEDNESDAY: Morning clouds and fog followed by partial sunshine. A low around 40. Milder in the afternoon with a high in the mid 60s. (2)

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A low in the mid 40s. A high 65 to 70.

Average lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Normal highs around 60.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-7 [end]

Updated Friday morning forecast & WX Notes

· Gorgeous Weather across the Northeast continues today with mild temperatures courtesy of a large arc of high pressure providing beautiful Autumn Weather and excellent Fall Color.

· This high pressure system will shift east allowing a cold front to approach the region, along with a mini surge of moisture shooting northeast.

· This little shot of clouds is associated with moisture way down to our south from Category 3 Hurricane Matthew now tracking up the northern Florida coast toward eastern Ge3ogorgia while arcing offshore and looping.

· The track of Matthew remains one of the more peculiar tracks and is unprecedented.

· The better news is that Matthew has remained a little offshore and deadliest part of a hurricane is the NE Quadrant where frictional forces spin up micro vortices or mini tornadoes adding to strong wind fields and storm surge.

· Our Weekend will be predominantly cloudy and showery Saturday as a cold front introduces colder conditions, sunshine may be a little harder pressed to breakout Sunday but eventually it will in the later afternoon.

· Frost was possible Sunday night and again Monday night – so cover or harvest. Another excellent dry stretch of weather was indicated for most of next week but enhance drought to near drought conditions across Vermont.

TODAY: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A high in the mid 70s. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear this evening, giving way to increasing overnight. A rising chance for a few showers before daybreak. A low in the low 50s. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

SATURDAY: Gray and cloudy with occasional light showers especially in the afternoon. A high in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. (5)

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance for showers in the evening, Otherwise mostly cloudy. A low 45 to 50. (4)

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun with scattered mountain sprinkles possible. Much cooler. A high in the mid 50s. (3)

MONDAY: Considerable valley fog with patchy frost, then increasing sunshine. A low in the mid 30s. A high in the mid 50s. (2)

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny after morning fog. A low 35 to 40 with patchy frost possible. A warming trend begins. A high 60 to 65. (2)

WEDNESDAY: Morning clouds and fog followed by partly sunny skies. A low 40 to 45. Milder. A high in the mid 60s. (2)

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A low in the mid 40s. A high in the upper 60s to around 70.

Average lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Normal highs around 60.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-6 [end]

Updated Thursday Night Forecast — October 6th, 2016

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low upper 40s. Little wind. (5)

TOMORROW: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A high in the mid 70s. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Clouds increasing later overnight. A low 50 to 55. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers. A high in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. (5)

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance for showers in the evening, Becoming partly cloudy overnight. A low in the mid 40s. (4)

SUNDAY: Fog burns off to a mix of clouds and sunshine. Much cooler. A high in the mid 50s. (3)

MONDAY: Patchy fog, burns off to bright sunshine and blue skies. A low in the mid 30s with patchy frost. A high in the mid 50s. (2)

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny after morning fog. A low 35 to 40 with patchy frost possible. A warming trend begins. A high in the mid 60s. (2)

WEDNESDAY: Morning clouds and fog followed by partly sunny skies. A low near 45. Milder. A high in the mid to upper 60s. (2)

Average lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Normal highs around 60.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-6 [end]

Updated Wednesday Evening Forecast — October 5th, 2016

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 45. Little wind. (5)

TOMORROW: Bright autumn sunshine after morning fog. Milder with a high 70 to 75. Light west winds. (5)

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low upper 40s to around 50. Little wind. (5)

FRIDAY: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A high in the mid 70s. South breeze 10 mph. (5)

Looking further ahead…

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear early then increasing clouds after midnight. A low around 55. (4)

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers. A high in the mid to upper 60s. (3)

SUNDAY: Variable morning clouds and fog, giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine. Turning much cooler. A low 45 to 50. A high in the 50s. (2)

MONDAY: Patchy fog, burns off to mostly sunny skies. A low in the 30s with patchy frost. A high in the mid 50s. (2)

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny after morning fog. A low 35 to 40. A high in the 60s. (2)

Average lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Normal highs in the lower 60s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-5 [end]

Updated Wednesday morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 5th, 2016

· Other than variable clouds and a slow burning off of fog today – our weather should include lots of sunshine for the afternoon with temps in the mid and upper 60s.

· Temps tomorrow increase reaching into the low and mid 70s Thursday and peak out mid to possibly upper 70s on Friday.

· Mathew is a giant concern to the southeast U.S. from NC. Outerbanks south down into Florida – however latest model guidance has kept Mathew from pushing up the coast or even off the coast – for quite a while – as it may loop well south of Cape Hatteras in the next few to9 several days.

· Mathew still could confound the computer modeled steering currents, so it will be monitored very closely, but we might be talking about Matthew well into “Next Week”

From 7 AM this morning – Stats on Mathew

Maximum Winds: 110 kts Gusts: 135 kts (a strong Category 3 Hurricane)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 270 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: 15 NM

TODAY: Variable morning clouds and fog giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine. A high in the mid to upper 60s. Light west winds. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 45. Little wind. (5)

THURSDAY: Bright autumn sunshine after morning fog. Milder with a high in the low 70s. Light west winds. (5)

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 50. (4)

FRIDAY: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A high in the mid 70s. (3)

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers. A low around 55. A high in the mid to upper 60s. (2)

SUNDAY: Variable morning clouds and fog, giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine. Turning much cooler. A low 45 to 50. A high in the 50s. (2)

MONDAY: Patchy fog, burns off to mostly sunny skies. A low in the 30s with patchy frost. A high in the mid 50s.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny after morning fog. A low 35 to 40. A high in the 60s.

Average lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Normal highs in the lower 60s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-5 [end]

Updated Tuesday Evening forecast — October 4th, 2016

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low in the mid 40s. Little wind. (5)

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny and gorgeous after morning fog and low clouds. A high in the mid 60s. Little wind. (5)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 45. Little wind. (5)

THURSDAY: Bright autumn sunshine after morning fog. A high in the low 70s. Light west winds. (4)

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 50. (4)

FRIDAY: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A high in the mid 70s. (3)

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers. A low 50 to 55. A high in the low 70s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy and becoming breezy. Slight chance for showers far southern areas. A low 45 to 50. A high in the upper 50s to low 60s. (2)

Average lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Normal highs in the lower 60s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-3 [end]

Updated Tuesday morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 4th, 2016

· We’ll start this morning into the early afternoon with more drip drip drip…but begin to dry out considerably later on today with beautiful “sunbursts” for those of you leaf-peeping.

· A stretch of gorgeous weather and temperatures moderating into the low and mid 70s to be achieved by Thursday.

· Matthew this morning a Category 4 monster hurricane with max winds at 145 mph was currently devastating the western tip of Haiti with Cuba next, followed by the Bahamas.

· A slow turn toward the NW. will put Matthew in a position to affect Florida, GA. SC. NC. later this week.

· Much too early to get a confident track on Matthew as it pulls away from Cape Hatteras region. But 250 nautical mile circulation means parts of New England may feel it later this weekend or early next week.

· Meanwhile higher pressure will guard us from inclement weather with a very comfortable stretch of good project weather going through the end of this week.

TODAY: Widely scattered light showers or sprinkles through mid day, otherwise clouds giving way to intervals of mid to late afternoon sunshine. A high near 65. Light southeast winds. (5)

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Considerable valley fog. A low in the mid 40s. Little wind. (5)

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and gorgeous after morning fog and low clouds. A high in the mid 60s. Little wind. (5)

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. A low near 45. (4)

THURSDAY: Bright autumn sunshine after morning fog. A high in the low 70s. (3)

FRIDAY: Bright autumn sunshine and well above normal temperatures, after morning fog. A low near 50. A high in the mid 70s. (3)

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers. A low 50 to 55. A high in the low 70s. (2)

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy and becoming breezy. Slight chance for showers far southern areas. A low 45 to 50. A high in the upper 50s to low 60s. (2)

Average lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Normal highs in the lower 60s.

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-3 [end]