
Roger Hill’s Radio Vermont Forecast 3:00 PM Tuesday 2-18-25
TONIGHT: A few cloudy periods’ northern and central mountains with scattered flurries.A low ranging zero to 10 below. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing overnight.
TOMORROW: A few more clouds especially northern areas otherwise mostly sunny. A high mid to upper teens. Northwest winds 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A low 5 below to 5 above. Little wind.
THURSDAY: A few intervals of sun then clouding up. Chance for a northern flurry. A high around 20. Light south winds.

Looking further ahead
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Good chance for flurries or light snow showers. Minor accumulation. A low around 10.

FRIDAY: Morning clouds, then partly to mostly sunny. A high in the upper teens.
SATURDAY: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Chance for snow showers or flurries toward evening. A low 5 below to 5 above. A high around 25.

SUNDAY: Considerable cloudiness. Chance for morning flurries, A low around 10. A high near 30.
Average low ranging mid-single digits to mid-teens. Average high upper 20s to mid-30s.

Climate data and worries ahead…
S. Quebec weather data: So, in Montreal their average annual snowfall is 82.5". Areas of southern Quebec have been in the path of heavy snowfall from the past two storm systems on February 13 and 16th.
Montreal (CYUL) received a total of 70.8 cm (28") on February 13 (34.0 cm) and 15" (36.8 cm). This brings the total for Feb 1-16 to 93 cm or 36.6" as compared to only 39 cm or 15.3" during the entire month of January 2025 and 37.6 cm or 15.3" in December 2024.

In other words Montreal is about to surpass their entire average annual snowfall. Yes its been a colder than normal, heavy snow winter, and this is reflected here in especially Norther Vermont.
One outstanding note: 72" was recorded at Jay Peak with just the last snowfall. This storm being the biggest in quite a few years.

Problems Ahead: Please be aware…. if we get warmth and rain, this could be very problematic for flooding. Everybody should start thinking "spring and milder temperatures" in a week or two. There is one "super loaded 4-5 sigma" standard deviation of juiced up precipitable water signal in the longer range modeling that if comes to fruition could really raise river levels. Do not panic or freak out over this, as it may not be so bad. Let’s just slowly get a handle with the idea of snow removal and prepare for ice jams, heavy snowmelt…combined with (…hate to say this) but Rain.
There is a real science behind how much rain? what temperature? etc. goes into first absorbing by the snow pack before it ripens and lets loose as water or run-off.
Bottom line let’s hope for good sugaring weather in March, with easing highs and freezing overnight lows. If that happens we’ll probably be OK. But if there’s extremes, temperatures go up 45 to 55 or higher with heavy rain over a shorter time scale, well God Help Us as they say, but we are on our own in light of the Federal Government’s purposeful failures ahead.

RH/2-18[forecast][end]