Geeky for 95% of you…but one might be interested so I will post —- What I rely on the most for my forecasting decades now is multiple models, but largely I use the ECMWF and the 51 member ensemble model runs. Now I use the ECMWF AIFS for longer range, and man its the closest true accurate predicter anywhere.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9