Updated Tuesday Morning forecast & WX Notes – October 25th, 2016

· Busy train of weather systems will impact Vermont and the northeast in general over the next several days.

· As one weather system moves out, there’s very little time before high clouds push in from the next weather system. The net result is predominance of cloud cover.

· Combine this with lengthening nights and shortening days, the more ugly duckling look of “Stick Season” and good grief the psychological effect is kind of dismal and can play a role of many getting down especially with SAD syndrome.

· Mountain snowfalls will be accrued above mainly 1500 feet or higher is a low level moisture continues to ram against the Green Mountains with a persistent light coatings of snow in the higher elevations.

· A break in this weather will come overnight Wednesday night into a portion of Thursday…but high clouds will thicken before another round of high terrain wet snow/rain barrels in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy, blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries near the mountains. Accumulation a dusting to 2 inches above 1500 feet. A high in the upper 30s to around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph mainly the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Widely scattered mountain flurries northern areas diminishing, otherwise partly clearing. A low upper 20s to low 30s. Light Northwest winds.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy periods mixed with intervals of sun.Slight chance for a few mountain flurries northern areas. A high 35 to 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly fair with high clouds. A low in the mid to upper 20s.

THURSDAY: High clouds but mostly fair in the morning. Thickening clouds in the afternoon leading to a rising chance for rain showers…mixing with wet snow toward evening. Blustery. A high in the low 40s.

FRIDAY: Gray and blustery at times. Snow in the higher terrain mixed with rain on valley floors tapering off in the afternoon. A low in the mid 30s. A high in the low 40s.

SATURDAY: Filtered morning sun then thickening clouds in the afternoon. A low in the mid 30s. A high around 45.

SUNDAY: Overcast & grey. A risk spotty mixed precipitation early, otherwise chance for rain. A low near 32. A high in the upper 30s.

Average lows low 30s. Normal highs in the low 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-25 [end]

Updated Monday Evening Forecast — October 24th, 2016

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries mainly near the Green Mountains. A dusting to less than ½ inch accumulation mainly elevated terrain Barre-Montpelier area north. A low near 32. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

TOMORROW: Partly to mostly cloudy, still blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Accumulation a dusting to 2 inches above 1500 feet. A high in the upper 30s to around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph mainly the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Widely scattered mountain flurries northern areas diminishing, otherwise partly clearing. A low upper 20s to low 30s. Light Northwest winds.

WEDNESDAY: Mixed sun and clouds.Slight chance for a few mountain flurries northern areas. A high 35 to 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Looking further ahead…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly fair with high clouds. A low in the mid 20s.

THURSDAY: Thickening clouds. A rising chance for rain showers late afternoon… mixing with wet snow flakes toward evening. Blustery. A high in the low 40s.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off as scattered snow showers. A low in the mid 30s. A high in the low 40s.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds. Chance for rain showers developing late. A low in the mid 30s. A high around 45.

Average lows low 30s. Normal highs 50 to 55

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-24 [end]

Updated Monday Morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 24th, 2016

· First snows of the season in the higher terrain brought hefty amounts as forecast and most of the snow accumulated just higher off the valley floors some amounts from yesterday morning: 
 LINCOLN 3.9 SSW (1785FT) 6.2

AVERILL COOP 6.0

GREENSBORO 2.1NNW (1495FT) 4.4

SUTTON COOP 3.8

NORTH UNDERHILL 3.8

MORGAN 6.7SE (1160FT) 3.1

WALDEN 4N COOP 3.0

SHEFFIELD 2.8NNW (1340FT) 3.0

JEFFERSONVILLE COOP (1163 FT) 3.0

DANVILLE 2.2 NW (1938FT) 2.5

NASHVILLE 1 E 2.2

WHEELOCK 1.6S (1172FT) 1.0

· A blustery northwesterly flow will continue into Wednesday with periodic small disturbances unleashing small amounts of rain showers and snow showers largely elevation dependent.

· This is all due to a large gyre in the atmosphere swirling in bits and pieces of moisture with temperatures cold enough for elevations snowflakes and valley rain drops.

· The next better organized weather system arrives later Thursday afternoon with some mixed precip changing to primarily all rain Thursday night tailing off with more snow showers Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy northern areas partly cloudy south and continued blustery. Widely scattered rain showers mixed with a few wet snowflakes high terrain. A high in the low to mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to occasionally 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries mainly near the mountains with a dusting to less than ½ inch accumulation across the elevated terrain. A low 32 to 35. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy, still blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation higher northern Greens. A high in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph mainly the afternoon.

Looking further ahead…

TUESDAY NIGHT: A few mountain clouds with Isolated flurries. A low upper 20s to low 30s.

WEDNESDAY: Mixed sun and clouds.Slight chance for a few mountain flurries northern areas. A high in the upper 30s.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a rising chance for rain showers mixing with wet snow flakes in the evening. Blustery. A low near 25. A high in the low 40s.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off as scattered snow showers. A low in the 30s. A high in low 40s.

Average lows low 30s. Normal highs 50 to 55

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-24 [end]

Updated Friday TGIF Evening Forecast — October 21st, 2016

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of showers or rain moderate to heavy at times. A low in the mid 40s. Winds becoming northwest winds 10 mph.

TOMORROW: Cloudy and raw. Scattered showers in the morning. Periods of rain in the afternoon possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across high terrain late. Temperatures in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mixed rain valley floors and wet snow, with a few to several inches of accumulation in the mountains and hills. A low in the mid 30s. West to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

SUNDAY: Periods of wet snow mixed with rain valley floors in the morning with some additional accumulation in the mountains. Mixed precipitation exiting in the afternoon to partial sunshine. Blustery to windy. A high near 45. Westerly winds 10 to 25 mph with gust over 40 mph in the higher terrain.

Looking further ahead…

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated sprinkle or mountain flurry possible. A low in the 30s

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and continued blustery. Scattered rain or snow showers. Some minor snow accumulation high terrain. A high in the low 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy, still blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation northern mountains. A low 32 to 35. A high in the upper 30s.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. A low upper 20s to low 30s. A high in the upper 30s.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a rising chance for rain or showers in the afternoon. A low near 25. A high in the low 40s.

Average lows low 30s. Normal highs mid 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence) RH/10-20 [end]

Updated Friday morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 21st, 2016

· As well forecast by the computer models a swath of significant rainfall has fallen along an axis from northeast-southwest with Plattsburg receiving over 1.5” this swath of steadier rainfall will shift slightly north of the Champlain Valley and we’ll likely see a period drier weather this morning but more showers shift in from the south with tropical moisture entrained.

· This means showers this afternoon spreading in from the south with some showers locally heavy at times.

· More moderate to heavy showers or periods of rain continues Friday night into Saturday.

· Colder air along the backside of this potent storm system will transition the precipitation from rain drops to snowflakes starting on the higher mountains slopes and slowly coming down to near base lodge elevations of the ski resorts across the Green Mountains or 1500 to 2000 ft.

· Several inches of wet snow accumulation was likely with a rain and possible snow mix but little to no accumulation on valley floors indicated Saturday night into the morning on Sunday.

· The potent storm system then pulls away delivering gusty winds to the region but also some partial afternoon sunshine developing Sunday afternoon.

· We have not had many storms like this recently so it will likely be a shock to the system especially for those higher locations seeing snow.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Showers becoming numerous mid afternoon on…heavy at times. Milder with a high in the mid to upper 60s. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of showers or rain moderate to heavy at times. A low in the mid 40s. North to northwest winds 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy and raw. Periods of rain or showers…possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across local high terrain late. Temperatures in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mixed rain valley floors and wet snow, with several inches of accumulation across high terrain. A low in the mid 30s.

SUNDAY: Periods of wet snow mixed with rain valley floors in the morning with some additional accumulation in the mountains. Mixed precipitation tapers off before exiting in the afternoon to partial sunshine. Blustery to windy. A high 40 to 45.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy and continued blustery. Scattered rain or snow showers. Some minor snow accumulation high terrain. A low around 35. A high in the low 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy, still blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation northern mountains. A low 32 to 35. A high in the upper 30s.

WEDNESDAY: Morning clouds then partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. A low upper 20s to low 30s. A high around 40.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a rising chance for rain or showers in the afternoon. A low near 30. A high in the 45 to 50.

Average lows low 30s. Normal highs mid 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence) RH/10-20 [end]

Updated Thursday Evening Forecast — October 20th, 2016

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widely scattered showers, most numerous and heavier across the northern Green Mountains. A low around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph stronger toward the Champlain Valley.

TOMORROW: Lots of clouds. A couple morning showers possible. Numerous showers later in the afternoon…heavy at times. Milder with a high in the mid to upper 60s. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of showers or rain moderate to heavy at times. A low in the mid 40s. North to northwest winds 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy and raw. Periods of rain or showers…possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across local high terrain late. Temperatures in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Looking further ahead…

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mixed rain valley floors and wet snow, with several inches of accumulation across high terrain. A low in the mid 30s.

SUNDAY: Periods of wet snow mixed with rain valley floors. Several additional inches of accumulation in the mountains. Mixed precipitation tapers off before exiting in the afternoon to breaks of sun. Blustery to windy. A high 40 to 45.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and continued blustery. Scattered rain or snow showers Some minor snow accumulation high terrain. A low around 35. A high in the low 40s.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation. A low 32 to 35. A high in the upper 30s.

Average lows low to mid 30s. Normal highs mid to upper 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-20 [end]

Updated Thursday Morning Forecast & Wx Notes — October 20th, 2016

· This is the 381st consecutive month of global temperatures above average and there is ramifications on our weather, extreme weather, and its effects on our infrastructure, and people’s lives.

· Politicians running for office in higher leadership roles have no business being there while not playing with a full deck of information or select by intention to deny it, or are otherwise indifferent.

· A strong storm system will develop showery weather over the next few days that should get increasingly heavier going into the weekend.

· Snow may fall down to valley floors but stick across the local higher terrain Saturday Night and Sunday with our first “elevation snows” of this young cold season.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers becoming likely by mid day. A high ranging through the 50s. Southeast breeze 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widely scattered showers but more numerous across northern areas. A low around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph stronger toward the Champlain Valley.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Widely scattered morning showers becoming numerous late. A high in the 60s. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Looking further ahead…

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers possibly heavy at times. A low in the mid 40s.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers…possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across local high terrain Saturday evening. Temperatures in the mid 40s.

SUNDAY: Showers of snow mixed with rain on valley floors tapering to sprinkles before exiting in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of a few to several inches possible above 1500 ft. Intervals of sun later in the afternoon away from the mountains. Blustery to windy. A low near 35. A high in the low 40s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers mainly near the mountains. Some minor snow accumulation high terrain. A low around 35. A high in the low 40s.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation. A low around 32. A high in the upper 30s.

Average lows low to mid 30s. Normal highs mid to upper 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-20 [end]

Updated Wednesday Evening Forecast — October 19th, 2016

TONIGHT: Clear skies this evening, then increasing and thickening clouds. A low around 45. Little wind.

TOMORROW: Clouding up. Showers likely and turning breezy. A high ranging through the 50s. Southeast breeze 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A few widely scattered showers. A low around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Widely scattered morning showers becoming numerous in late. A high in the low 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Looking further ahead…

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers possibly heavy at times. A low 50 to 55.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across local high terrain Saturday evening. Temperatures falling through 40s.

SUNDAY: Showers of snow mixed with rain on valley floors tapering to sprinkles before exiting in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of a few to several inches possible above 1500 ft. Intervals of sun later in the afternoon away from the mountains. Blustery to windy. A low near 35. A high in the low 40s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers mainly near the mountains. Some minor snow accumulation high terrain. Temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy blustery with scattered snow showers or flurries. Some minor accumulation. A low around 32. A high in the upper 30s.

Average lows low to mid 30s. Normal highs mid to upper 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-19 [end]

Updated Wednesday Morning Forecast & WX Notes — October 19th, 2016

· Pretty decent day today with above normal reading into the low and mid 60s. We’ll see another day like this though with more clouds and a threat for a few showers…becoming more numerous for Friday.

· A fairly potent and extensive storm system will affect us this weekend. Chance are that we see some catch-up rainfall and then some, with a transition to colder air on the back side of this system lowering the snow level down to around 2000 feet about Saturday night and lingering into Sunday.

· This will be a our first real snows – a reminder to get ready for winter travel.

· Temperatures will likely stay in the 40s and 30s late weekend into early to middle part of next week and then moderate back upward some, but the halcyon days of reaching 80 are over.

TODAY: Pick of the week – Partly to mostly sunny and continued mild. A high 60 to 65. West to northwest breeze 10 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: clear early, then increasing and thickening clouds. A low 40 to 45. Little wind.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. Showers likely and turning breezy. A high 50 to 55. Southeast breeze 10 mph.

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance for lingering showers. A low in the upper 40s.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Widely scattered morning showers becoming numerous in late. A high in the mid 60s.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or showers. Showers possibly heavy at times…mixing with wet snow across local high terrain Saturday night.

SUNDAY: Showers of rain or snow tapering to sprinkles later in the afternoon. Snow accumulation possible above 2000 ft. Intervals of sun later in the afternoon away from the mountains. Blustery. A low around 35. A high 40 to 45.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers mainly near the northern mountains. A low in the mid 30s. A high in the low to mid 40s.

Average lows low to mid 30s. Normal highs mid to upper 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-19 [end]

Updated Tuesday Evening forecast — October 18th, 2016

TONIGHT: A round of passing showers this evening, exiting to partial clearing overnight. Patchy dense valley fog. A low 50 to 55. Southwest breeze 10 mph diminishing overnight.

TOMORROW: Pick of the week – Partly to mostly sunny and continued mild. A high 60 to 65. West breeze 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Fair early, then thickening clouds. A low 40 to 45. Little wind.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. A round of showers likely mainly in the afternoon. breezy. A high 50 to 55. Southeast breeze 10 to 15 mph.

Looking further ahead…

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance for lingering showers. A low in the upper 40s.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Widely scattered morning showers becoming numerous in late. A high in the mid 60s.

SATURDAY: Possibly – First real snows of winter…mainly cloudy. Wet snow showers…mixed with rain on valley floors. Some snow accumulation possible especially higher Green Mountains. Much colder, blustery and raw.A low 32 to 35. A high around 40.

SUNDAY: Chance for a mixed snow or rain shower exiting, Otherwise clouds mixing with intervals of sun. Blustery and cold. A low in the mid 30s. A high near 45.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers mainly near the northern mountains. A low in the mid 30s. A high in the low to mid 40s.

Average lows low to mid 30s. Normal highs mid to upper 50s

(Confidence factor: 5 = Good predictability 1 = shaky modeling lowered confidence)

RH/10-19 [end]